Effects of monetary policy rates on energy technologies: Implications for the European green transition
Sasha Serebriakova  1@  , Friedemann Polzin  2@  , Mark Sanders  3@  
1 : Maastricht University [Maastricht]
2 : Universiteit Utrecht
3 : Maastricht University [Maastricht, Pays-Bas]

A swift transition to renewable energy sources in the European Union is necessary for mitigating climate change. However, in a period of higher ECB policy rates meant to combat inflation, it is unclear how monetary policy may impact renewable energy installation. Prior research shows heterogeneous effects of policy rates on sectors with varying industrial characteristics, meaning that renewable technologies may be harder hit by monetary contractions due to their investment requirements, life-cycle stage, and/or dependence on external finance. Through a panel of 27 European countries, this paper uses fixed effects and differential impacts analysis to look at the interactions between 10 utility-scale energy technologies, their characteristics, and monetary policy. Over the period of 2001-2021, fossil fuel, hydropower and nuclear technologies were positively affected by monetary contractions, while a 25 basis point rise in policy rates was associated with an 8% decrease in the new installed capacity of wind offshore plants, and a 26.5% decrease for solar PV. Significant interaction effects using measures of investment intensity and external finance dependence for energy technologies, yield evidence in favour of the interest rate and balance sheet channels of monetary policy transmission. In addition, support is found for an LCOE specification for the interest rate channel in the energy sector, through a 2SLS approach robust to endogeneity concerns. These results suggest the existence of a carbon bias in ECB operations; other greening policies (such as preferred interest rates) may be needed to correct this disadvantage for future renewables in development and deployment.


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